隧道工矽肺危险度评价模型

目的：建立隧道工矽肺危险度评价模型，预测矽肺发病规律。方法：调查有关工程局5482名接尘工人的接尘史、隧道粉尘资料和矽肺病人的诊断日期；应用Kaplan-Meier方法初步估计累积患病率善于累积接尘量的曲线；应用样条函数方法拟合曲线。结果：建立了矽肺的危险度评价模型；提出矽尘作业30年不发生矽肺的粉尘最高容许浓度建议值0.21mg/m^3；在平均粉尘浓度20.47mg/m^3下工作30年，矽肺累积患病率预计为11．1％；接尘工龄30年，累积患病率控制为0.5%时，容许浓度为1.14mg/m^3；累积患病率控制为1％时，容许浓度为2.06mg/m^3。结论：建立的模型具有实用价值，得到的结果可以为行政管理部门制定规章制度、保护工人的健康提供决策依据。

Risk Assessment Model for Silicosis in Tunnellers

Objective To develop a risk assessment model for silicosis in tunnellers and to predict the incidence pattern.Methods Dust exposure histories of \{5 482\} tunnellers,dust monitoring data and diagnostic dates of silicotics were collected and investigated.Kaplan\|Meier method was used to prepare the primary curve estimation of cumulative prevalence rate(CPR)vs the dust exposure followed by the spline function to fit the curve.Results A risk assessment model for silicosis was developed.The suggested maximum allowable concentration(MAC)of dust would be \{0\^21 mg/m 3 ,under which no silicosis would occur after exposed for 30 years.However,working under current dust concentration(\{20\^47 mg/m 3 )for 30 years,the CPR would be 11\^1%.If the CPR was set at 0\^5%with 30 years exposure,the MAC should be \{1\^14 mg/m 3 ,and \{2\^06 mg/m 3 when CPR at 1%.Conclusions Results suggested that the model was reasonable and practical and could serve as a scientific basis for regulation making to protect workers health.