| 基于运气学说的流感样病例预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡雪琴,崔蒙.基于运气学说的流感样病例预测[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2011,18(7):23-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡雪琴 崔蒙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国中医科学院中医药信息研究所,北京,100700 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金(20100470514) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的尝试将运气学说应用于流感疾病的预测预报,建立流感预警模型。方法以天津市2005-2009年的流感样病例数据为研究对象,通过分析气象因素（最高温度、平均温度、平均湿度等）以及推算运气学说中的客主加临情况,探索流感和气象因素及运气因子之间的关系。结果流感的流行与最高温度、最大海平面压力、运气因子有一定的关联关系。结论构建了一个基于运气学说的流感预警自回归移动平均模型,并且具有较好的流感样病例预测能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 流感样病例 运气学说 客主加临 气象因素 自回归移动平均模型 |
Influenza-like Illness Forecast Based on Yunqi Theory |
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| HU Xue-qin,CUI Meng.Influenza-like Illness Forecast Based on Yunqi Theory[J].Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine,2011,18(7):23-25. |
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| Authors: | HU Xue-qin CUI Meng |
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| Institution: | HU Xue-qin,CUI Meng(Institute of Information on TCM,China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,Beijing 100700,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To apply Yunqi theory into the influenza epidemic forecast and set up a model of influenza early warning.Methods The influenza-like illness(ILI) data came from Tianjin city of the year 2005-2009 were adopted,meteorological factors(max temperature,average temperature,average humidity,etc) were analyzed,and the situation of guest qi adding to host qi of Yunqi theory was calculated.The correlation between influenza and meteorological factors and Yunqi factors were explored.Results The max temperature... |
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| Keywords: | influenza-like illness Yunqi theory guest qi adding to host qi meteorological factors ARIMA model |
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