2010-2013年北京市体检人群甲状腺结节检出情况分析

目的 探讨北京市体检人群甲状腺结节检出情况的变化趋势,预测北京市常住人口甲状腺结节患病情况.方法 采用现况研究的方法,对北京市2010-2013年参与体检人群的甲状腺结节检出情况进行分析,采用Excel2007建立数据库,应用SPSS16.0软件,采用x2和趋势x2检验对数据进行统计学分析,并根据2013年的北京市体检人群甲状腺结节的检出率和常住人口数,采用直接标准化法估算北京市常住人口甲状腺结节的患病概况.结果 2010-2013年,北京市体检中心共有92 725人接受甲状腺结节彩色多普勒超声检测,甲状腺结节整体检出率为36.7％(34 052例),其中男性检出率为30.4％,女性为43.5％,女性高于男性(x2=1.70×103,P＜0.01).2010-2013年间甲状腺结节检出率呈上升趋势(x2趋势=5.33×102,P＜0.01).以2010年的检出率为基数计算疾病增长速度显示,2012-2013年甲状腺结节检出率增长明显,女性明显高于男性,增速比分别为19.1％:9.9％和37.3％:14.5％.男女甲状腺结节检出率都随着年龄的增长呈上升趋势(总体x2趋势=5.74×103,P＜0.01),并以40～49岁和≥60岁组增长最为明显.根据2013年检出情况,估算获得北京市常住人口甲状腺结节预期检出率为38.2％,预测患病人数近790万.结论 北京市体检人群甲状腺结节检出率较高,发展速度较快,患病人群基数较大.

An epidemiological analysis on thyroid nodule among check-up crowd in Beijing from 2010 to 2013

Objective To analyze the dynamic change trend of thyroid nodules among check-up crowd in Beijing,so as to predict the prevalence in permanent residents.Methods The epidemiological analysis was conducted on thyroid nodule among check-up crowd in Beijing from 2010 to 2013.Excel2007 was adopted to establish the database,and chi-square test was used to process statistical analysis by SPSS16.0.According to the detection rate and the permanent population in Beijing in 2013,the prevalence in permanent residents could be estimated by direct standardization method.Results A total of 92 725 people were tested for thyroid nodule by ultrasound in Beijing Physical Examination Center from 2010 to 2013.The overall positive rate of thyroid nodule was 36.7％ (34 052 cases).The prevalence was higher in females than that in males (43.5％ vs 30.4％,x2=1.70× 103,P＜0.01).The detection rate was on the rise during 2010-2013 (x2trend=5.33×102,P＜0.01),and increased sharply during 2012-2013 depending on the cardinal number in 2010.The growth rate was higher in females than in males during 2012-2013 with the increasing ratio of 19.1％ vs 9.9％ and 37.3％ vs 14.5％,respectively.Thyroid nodule positive rates were on the rise as age growing for both male and female groups (x2trend=5.74×103,P＜0.01),and obviously increased in the age groups of 40-49 and ≥60.According to the check-up situation in 2013,the expected positive rate and number of thyroid nodule for permanent residents in Beijing were 38.2％ and nearly 7.9 millions,respectively.Conclusions The positive rate of thyroid nodule among check-up crowd in Beijing is very high with a growing trend.There is a large thyroid nodule positive population in Beijing.