Death in the first year after kidney transplantation: implications for patients on the transplant waiting list

BACKGROUND: As the kidney transplant waiting list continues to expand, maintaining the medical fitness of transplant candidates will become increasingly difficult. METHODS: To identify patients who are at greatest risk during the wait-list period, we performed a Cox regression analysis to determine risk factors for mortality in the first posttransplantation year among 23,546 adult first kidney transplant recipients recorded in the United States Renal Data System between January 1995 and September 1997. RESULTS: In this study population, 4.6% of the patients died in the first posttransplantation year, and cardiac causes were the leading cause (27%) of death. Patients with diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]=1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39-1.80), peripheral vascular disease (HR=1.41; 95% CI, 1.11-1.80), or angina (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.15-1.65), and patients with a longer duration of end-stage renal disease (HR=1.06 per year; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09) had a higher risk for mortality. Additionally, patients with early acute rejection (HR=1.47; 95% CI, 1.23-1.76), delayed graft function (HR=1.46; 95% CI, 1.25-1.71), and a lower glomerular filtration rate after transplantation were also at increased risk for death within the first posttransplantation year. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with comorbid disease, patients with a long duration of end-stage renal disease, and potential recipients of organs at high risk for graft dysfunction should be carefully screened for medical complications before transplantation to achieve the most favorable outcomes. Alternate organ allocation strategies that facilitate patient assessment close to the time of transplantation or that prioritize high-risk patients may also improve outcomes.