| 四种评分系统预测慢性重型肝炎预后的价值比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑盛,殷芳,刘海,朱为梅,王建刚,肖琼怡,杨兰艳,郭致平. 四种评分系统预测慢性重型肝炎预后的价值比较[J]. 实用肝脏病杂志, 2011, 14(2): 119-120,126. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-5069.2011.02.013 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑盛 殷芳 刘海 朱为梅 王建刚 肖琼怡 杨兰艳 郭致平 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省第三人民医院消化内科,昆明市,650011 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的比较终末期肝病模型（MELD）评分、Child-Turcotte-Pugh（CTP）评分、MESO指数和MELD-Na评分系统预测慢性重型肝炎患者预后的价值。方法回顾性分析156例慢性重型肝炎患者的临床资料,计算患者入院时的MELD、CTP、MESO和MELD-Na评分。所有患者均随访1年。绘制受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线并计算曲线下面积（AUC）,应用正态Z检验对四者曲线下面积进行比较。结果 156例慢性重型肝炎患者随访1年后有62例患者死亡,死亡组患者MELD、CTP、MESO和MELD-Na评分分别为31.2±6.51、2.4±1.3、2.4±0.6和39.4±9.8,均高于生存组患者（20.2±7.4、10.1±1.5、1.5±0.6和22.5±8.6）,差异具有统计学意义（t=6.71t,=7.20t,=8.14t,=9.65,均P〈0.01）。各评分系统的AUC分别为0.824、0.6750、.826和0.898;MELD-Na评分系统对慢性重型肝炎预后评估价值显著优于MELD、CTP和MESO（均P〈0.01）。结论 MELD-Na是判断慢性重型肝炎患者预后的一个较好的指标,其准确性优于MELD、CTP评分和MESO指数。
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| 关 键 词： | 重型肝炎 预后 生存分析 危险性评估 |
A comparative study of four prognostic systems for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis |
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| ZHENG Sheng,YIN Fang,LIU Hai,et al.. A comparative study of four prognostic systems for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis[J]. Journal of Clinical Hepatology, 2011, 14(2): 119-120,126. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-5069.2011.02.013 |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Sheng YIN Fang LIU Hai et al. |
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| Affiliation: | ZHENG Sheng,YIN Fang,LIU Hai,et al.Department of Gastroenterology,Yunnan Third People's Hospital,Kunming 650011,China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To compare the predictive values of four prognostic systems including model for end stage liver disease(MELD),Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP),MESO and MELD-Na scoring systems in predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis.Methods A cohort of 156 patients with chronic severe hepatitis were retrospectively studied and followed-up for one year.MELD,CTP,MESO and MELD-Na scores were calculated at the day of admission.Receiver operating characteristics curves(ROC)and the area under ROC(A... |
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| Keywords: | Severe hepatitis Prognosis Survival analysis Risk assessment |
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