中国 2008 年甲状腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

目的估计中国2008年甲状腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测今后20年甲状腺癌发病数和死亡数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查（2004—2005年）的结果，对中国2008年甲状腺癌的发病、死亡和患病情况进行估计，并对2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年其发病和死亡数进行预测。结果2008年中国甲状腺癌新发病例数为21883例，占所有恶性肿瘤新发病例数的0．8％，世界人口标化发病率为1．4／10万；同年中国甲状腺癌死亡病例数约为3264人，占所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的0．2％，世界人口标化死亡率为0．2／10万。2008年中国15岁以上成人甲状腺癌5年患病数为83866例，占所有恶性肿瘤5年患病数的1．8％，5年患病率为7．8／10万。中国甲状腺癌高发人群为50岁以上女性人群，在各年龄段，女性甲状腺癌的发病率及死亡率均高于男性。在未来的20年内甲状腺癌的发病数和死亡数均呈现上升的趋势，女性人群较男性增加更为明显。结论甲状腺癌已成为威胁我国女性生命健康的主要癌症，其发病情况在未来20年将越来越严重。应针对其危险因素，积极开展一级和二级肿瘤防控工作，以期降低其疾病负担。

Estimation and prediction on incidence,mortality and prevalence of thyroid cancer in China, 2008

Objective To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of thyroid cancer in China in 2008. Methods The data from 36 cancer registries in China and from the Third National Death Survey in China （ 2004 - 2005 ） were used by the mathematical models, and the prediction of the cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years was carried out. Results In 2008, the incidence of thyroid cancer in China was 21 883, with the incidence rate of 1.4/100 000, which accounted for 0. 8% of new cases of all sites of cancers. The mortality of thyroid cancer was 3 264, with the mortality rate of 0. 2/100 000, which accounted for 0. 2% of deaths of all sites of cancers. The 5-year prevalence of thyroid cancer among adults （ older than 15 years） was 83 866, with the prevalence of 7. 8/100 000, which accounted for 1.8% of patients of all sites of cancers. The prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Chi- na would gradually increase in the next 20 years, especially in females. Conclusions The thyroid cancer has been one of the key causes of both incidence and mortality of cancers among Chinese females. Either incidence or mortality of thyroid cancer in China is increasing. The effective primary and secondary prevention and control strategies for thyroid cancer according to the risk factors will help decrease the disease burden.