应用捕获-再捕获法估计5岁以下儿童死亡人数

目的 应用捕获-再捕获方法 估计林州市2004—2005年5岁以下儿童死亡人数,评价全死因登记报告中5岁以下儿童死亡数据的完整性。方法 通过林州市居民全死因登记处、全国第3次死因调查的村访谈资料和公安部门3个来源收集林州市2004—2005年5岁以下儿童死亡资料。不同来源数据间的匹配采用姓名、年龄、性别、死亡时间、死因和居住地址等变量。考虑到样本间的相依性和异质性,在年龄、性别分层中使用对数线性模型估计三样本中都没有出现的5岁以下儿童死亡理论数,加上已知观察数,得到估计死亡总数。结果 林州市2004—2005年3个来源资料合并共报告5岁以下儿童死亡人数为359例,死亡率为2.16%。其中,居民全死因登记处报告的儿童死亡人数为291人,死亡率为1.75%;用捕获-再捕获方法 估计的儿童死亡人数为398人,死亡率为2.39%。登记处的漏报率为26.9%,合并样本的漏报率为9.8%;女童组更易被漏报,同时在低年龄儿童组死亡漏报率较高。结论 仅使用居民全死因登记处或合并样本资料会低估5岁以下儿童死亡人数。在公安部门、死因调查的村访谈资料、居民全死因登记处等部门的现有资料基础上使用捕获-再捕获方法 ,可以校正低估的5岁以下儿童死亡人数。

Estimating the Death Number of Children under Age 5 by Capture-recapture Methods

Objective To estimate the death number of children under age 5 in Linzhou city during 2004 to 2005 using the capture-recapture method, and to evaluate the integrality of data about the children death report in all death cause registry. Methods The data of children death were collected from sources of registry office, village symposium for the 3rd national death cause survey and police registries. Cases in every source were matched on the name, sex, age, date of death, cause of death and resident address. To fit for dependencies and heterogeneities between three sources, a log-linear model in stratified age and gender was used to estimate the death number of children which did not appear in three sources. Results It was reported that death number of children under age 5 was 359 and the mortality was 2.16% for combined three sources; but from the registry office, the number and mortality were 291 and 1.75%, respectively. The capture-recapture method estimated that the number of death was 398 and the mortality was 2.39%. Under-reporting rates of registry and aggregate database were 26.9% and 9.8%. Female deaths were more likely to go unreported. Under-reporting rates of registry got higher with the decrease of the age at death. Conclusion Registry office or aggregated database underestimated the death number of children under age 5. On the base of data which were collected from police, village and registry, using the capture-recapture method can adjust the death number of children.