2010—2013 年陕西省出生缺陷空间分布及空间聚集性

目的：探讨2010至2013年陕西省出生缺陷的空间分布特征及空间聚集性。方法：对陕西省各调查县出生缺陷发生数据进行空间分布描述,利用普通克里格法对陕西省出生缺陷发生状况进行建模预测,运用空间自相关方法对陕西省县(市、区)级层面数据进行空间统计分析。结果：陕西省胎、婴儿出生缺陷发生率为219.196/万;空间插值预测图显示陕西省出生缺陷的分布具有明显的地理分布特征;全局空间自相关分析结果显示陕西省出生缺陷发生存在空间聚集现象,局部空间自相关分析显示彬县、淳化县、扶风县、泾阳县、礼泉县、乾县、武功县、兴平市、永寿县为出生缺陷发生的“正热点”地区,佳县、米脂县、清涧县、绥德县、吴堡县、榆阳区、子洲区为出生缺陷发生的“负热点”地区。结论：2010至2013年陕西省出生缺陷发生存在明显的空间聚集性,通过空间插值预测与空间自相关可以直观地反映出出生缺陷发生的全省状况,为进一步进行干预提供参考。

Spatial distribution and clustering in birth defects from#br#2010 to 2013 in Shaanxi Province

Objective: To explore the spatial distribution and clustering in birth defects from 2010 to2013 in Shaanxi Province.Methods: Spatial distribution was used to describe the birth defects, while ordinary Krigingmethod was used to predict the status of birth defects in Shaanxi province. The spatialcharacteristics for the birth defects at the county/district level were analyzed by spatialautocorrelation.Results: The overall incidence of birth defects was 219.196/10 000; Birth defect didnot appear to be a random distribution but show a significant spatial aggregation. Spatialinterpolation predicted the geographic distribution for occurrence of birth defects in ShaanxiProvince. Local autocorrelation analysis showed nine “hot spot areas” for birth defects, such asQian County, Liquan County, Yongshou County, Bin County, Fufeng County, Jingyang County,Chunhua County, Wugong County and Xingping City, and seven “cold spot areas” including JiaCounty, Yuyang District, Mizhi County, Suide County, Wubu County, Qingjian County and ZizhouDistrict.Conclusion: There are spatial clustering in birth defects from 2010 to 2013 in Shaanxi Province.Spatial interpolation and spatial autocorrelation can be used to predict the spatial features of birthdefects in the whole province and provide evidence for the further intervention.