Distinguishing between persistent and transient impaired glucose tolerance using a prediction model.

Screening for impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and Type 2 (non-insulin dependent) diabetes was carried out in 777 people and those with high blood glucose levels completed three 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT). Blood lipid levels, fasting and 2-h insulin levels, body mass index, and blood pressure were also measured and family history of Type 2 diabetes recorded. Fifty people were identified with IGT and of these 21 were found to have persistent IGT and 29 transient IGT. A model including the variables body mass index, fasting and 2-h insulin levels, fasting triglycerides and family history of Type 2 diabetes was developed using the Speigelhalter-Knill-Jones weighting method to predict subjects with persistent IGT. This model could be useful in identifying people with persistent IGT and therefore eliminate the need for repeat OGTTs which are time consuming and expensive.