HAND-FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STATUS AND
RELATIONSHIP WITH METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN GUANGZHOU,SOUTHERN CHINA,
2008-2012 |
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Authors: | Tiegang Li Zhicong Yang Xiangyi Liu Yan Kang Ming Wang |
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Institution: | Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, P. R. China, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, P. R. China |
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Abstract: | Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the
extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou,
southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its
increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the
negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its
relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524
HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate
of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56,
132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively,
showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature
corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to
9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in
atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by
7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each
one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48%
or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an
increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases,
depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that
epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low
fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of
HFMD. |
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Keywords: | Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) Epidemiology Meteorological variables Correlation analysis |
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