Potential opportunities and perils of imperfect dengue vaccines |
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| Authors: | Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero Ira B. Schwartz Donald S. Burke Derek A.T. Cummings |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA;2. Nonlinear Systems Dynamics Section, Plasma Physics Division, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA;3. University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA |
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| Abstract: | Dengue vaccine development efforts have focused on the development of tetravalent vaccines. However, a recent Phase IIb trial of a tetravalent vaccine indicates a protective effect against only 3 of the 4 serotypes. While vaccines effective against a subset of serotypes may reduce morbidity and mortality, particular profiles could result in an increased number of cases due to immune enhancement and other peculiarities of dengue epidemiology. Here, we use a compartmental transmission model to assess the impact of partially effective vaccines in a hyperendemic Thai population. Crucially, we evaluate the effects that certain serotype heterogeneities may have in the presence of mass-vaccination campaigns. |
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| Keywords: | Dengue vaccine Vaccine effects Mathematical model |
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