A model to predict long-term sustained response to interferon therapy in chronic hepatitis C |
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Authors: | F Noventa G L De Salvo L Chemello P Pontisso A Alberti |
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Institution: | Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy |
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Abstract: | Interferon therapy is used widely for chronic hepatitis C but only a minority of treated patients achieve a long-lasting sustained response. We have developed, by logistic regression, a mathematical model to estimate the probability of sustained response in an individual patient with chronic hepatitis C when treated with interferon-α (IFN-α). The model, which includes age, sex, disease duration, pretreatment serum γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase, alanine aminotransferase and virus genotype, was developed from a database of 307 patients and validated in a new set of 200 patients. It performed well as goodness-of-fit ( P = 0.71 and P = 0.15 in the development and test sample, respectively) and discrimination (area under receiver operating curve = 0.79 in the development and 0.78 in the test sample, respectively). This model may provide decision support in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C with IFN-α. |
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Keywords: | chronic hepatitis C interferon therapy logistic regression predictive model |
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