Creasy高危因素评分预测先兆早产的价值

目的:评价Creasy高危因素评分对先兆早产的预测价值。方法:随机选取在该院产科门诊进行定期正规产检的孕20～36+6周孕妇1615例进行Creasy高危因素评分,随访妊娠结局,对出现先兆早产的患者进行保胎治疗,统计不同孕周的保胎成功率。结果:完成随访1274例,其中发生先兆早产276例(21.66%),ROC曲线得出12分值的灵敏度+特异度之和最大,准确度达85.5%,是预测早产的临界分值;在各因素中,子宫敏感、紧张繁重的工作、宫颈管长度、双胎、低社会经济状态、早产史、子宫畸形等因素对先兆早产的预测价值有统计学意义;先兆早产患者保胎治疗的成功率随孕周的增大呈递减趋势。结论:Creasy高危因素评分≥12分可有效预测先兆早产的发生,对先兆早产患者进行早期防治有利于提高保胎成功率。

Value of Creasy high risk factors score in prediction of threatened premature labor

Objective:To evaluate the predictive value of Creasy high risk factors score in threatened premature labor.Methods:1 615 pregnant women of 20 ～ 36 +6 gestational weeks were selected randomly and evaluated by Creasy high risk factors score,the pregnancy outcomes were followed up,the cases with threatened premature labor received tocolysis treatment,the success rates of tocolysis at different gestational weeks were counted up.Results:1 274 pregnant women were followed up,premature labor occurred in 276 women (21.66%),ROC curve obtained the conclusion that 12 percentile of sensitivity and specificity was the maximum,the accuracy rate was 85.5%,which was the critical value of predicting premature labor;uterine sensitivity,intense and heavy workload,cervical length,twins,low socioeconomic status,history of premature birth,uterine malformations were statistical factors of predicting premature labor;the success rate of tocolysis in cases with threatened premature labor decreased with gestational weeks.Conclusion:Creasy risk factor score≥12 may predict the occurrence of threatened premature labor effectively,early prevention and treatment is beneficial to increase the success rate of tocolysis in cases with threatened premature labor.