The occurrence of invasive cancers following a diagnosis of breast carcinoma in situ

Approximately 1 in every 600 women attending breast-screening programmes in the United Kingdom is diagnosed with breast carcinoma in situ (BCIS). However, there is little information on the occurrence of subsequent cancers (other than second breast cancers) in these women. We investigated the occurrence of invasive cancers in 12,836 women diagnosed with BCIS in southeast England between 1971 and 2003, using data from the Thames Cancer Registry. A greater than expected number of subsequent cancers was found for two sites: breast (standardised incidence ratio (SIR) 1.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.79-2.14) and corpus uteri (SIR 1.42; 95% CI 1.11-1.78). For subsequent ipsilateral breast cancer in those treated with breast conservation, the excess was independent of the time since diagnosis of BCIS, whereas for subsequent contralateral breast cancer, there was a steady decline in excess over time. For subsequent uterine cancer, the excess became statistically significant only at >5 years after BCIS diagnosis, consistent with a treatment effect. This was further supported by Cox regression analysis: the risk of subsequent uterine cancer was significantly increased in women receiving hormonal therapy compared with those not receiving it, with a hazard ratio of 2.97 (95% CI 1.84-4.80).