南京市玄武区肺癌死亡率趋势分析和预测

目的　了解南京市居民肺癌死亡率的变化趋势。方法　整群抽样南京市玄武区居民 ,对 70年代以来居民病伤死亡资料进行分析 ,采用灰色模型预测近期肺癌死亡率。结果　南京市玄武区肺癌死亡率呈现不断上升的趋势 ,在全癌亡中的顺位由 70、80年代的第 2位跃居到 90年代以来的第 1位。目前在癌亡中所占比重为 2 3 4 5 %。男性肺癌死亡率及增长速度高于女性。灰色模型预测结果 ,至 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 2年 ,男女肺癌粗死亡率将分别达到 4 7 39/ 10万和2 2 6 3/ 10万 ;至 2 0 0 3～ 2 0 0 5年 ,分别达到 5 1 2 4 / 10万和 2 4 2 7/ 10万。结论　南京市肺癌死亡率已上升到恶性肿瘤死因之首。在今后的 5年中 ,肺癌仍将呈继续上升的趋势。

Analysis and Prediction on Lung Cancer Mortality Rate Trend of Xuanwu District,Nanjing City

Objective To investigate the changing trend of lung cancer mortality rate in Nanjing city.Methods Group samplings were carried out among the resident of Xuanwu District,Nanjing City,the residents' death data since 1970 was analysised.The recent lung cancer mortality rats was predicted by gray model.Results The lung cancer mrotality rate for Xuanwu District,Nanjing City was increased continuously.Lung cancer was in the second place among all malignancy death factors in the 1970s and 1980s,but leaps to the first place since 1990 and accounts for 23.45% among all malignancy death factors between 1997 and 1999.The mortality rate and increasing speed of lung cancer for men was higher than that of wome.It was predicted by gray model prediction that the recent lung cancer mortality rate for men and wome would reach 47.39%/10 5 and 22.63/10 5 respectively until 2000-2002;51.24/10 5 and 24.27/10 5 respectively until 2003-2005.Conclusions The lung cancer mortality rate has been raised to the first malignancy death factor in Nanjing.In the coming five years,lung cancer would still have a rising trend if no effective measures were adopted.