Thirty-day and one-year predictors of death in noncardiac major surgical procedures

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the predictive value of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cardiac risk classification, as well as other potential risk factors (procedure risk, smoking, obesity, hyperlipidemia, and renal insufficiency), on all-cause mortality at 30 days and at 1 year postoperatively. METHODS: In the year 2000, 1238 consecutive patients undergoing general anesthesia for various noncardiac surgical procedures at the Houston Veterans Affairs Medical Center were screened preoperatively and classified according to the ACC/AHA guidelines. Patients' charts were reviewed for the above-mentioned risk factors. RESULTS: A logistic regression analysis demonstrated that older age and higher procedure risk were associated with higher 30-day mortalities (P = 0.0012 and 0.0441, respectively). The ACC/AHA classification was positively correlated with mortality at 1 year (P = 0.0071). CONCLUSIONS: The ACC/AHA classification predicts mortality at 1 year but not at 30 days for major noncardiac surgeries; procedure-related risk is a better predictor of 30-day postoperative mortality in our patient population.