男同性恋人群基数估计方法的研究

目的 通过现场实施确定男同性恋人群规模估计的更为实用的方法。方法 同时采用除数法、捕获—再捕获法和乘数法在10天内对某市9个男同性恋活动场所展开计数调查。结果 除数法计数结果为877人；捕获—再捕获法获得3次计数结果，分别为1408人、1207人和949人，乘数法耒获得适当数据。结论 除数法易于操作，进展顺利，结果可信度较高，但花费较大；捕获—再捕获法用时短，花费低，3次结果可以相互印证，适于同性恋人群基数估计；乘数法需要改进以获得较可靠的信息。

A study on the estimation of the size of male homosexual population

ObjectiveTo study the practical survey method on estimating the size of male homosexual population. MethodsNine male homosexual gathering spots were selecte d and three methods as division method, capture-mark-recapture method and mult iplier method were applied in counting the numbers of homosexual men in one city in Sichuan province. ResultsNumber of counting through division method was 87 7 and the three numbers through capture-mark-recapture method were 1 408 , 1 207 and 949 respectively. However, appropriate data was not obtained by m ultiplier method. ConclusionsDivision method was easy to operate with its high credibility,but costly. Capture-mark-recapture method was less costly le ss bot h in capital and time, and the results could be testified to each other. Multipl ier method should be modified before applied to obtain reliable information.