基于地理信息系统的广西鼠疫预警模型的构建与应用研究

目的 建立广西鼠疫预警模型,为广西鼠疫早期预警、风险分区监测管理提供参考.方法 运用广西鼠疫地理信息系统(GIS),筛选影响广西鼠疫流行的主要因素,并用模糊数学方法建立预警模型;根据预警模型评估出的风险分值,把广西26个监测点(市、县、区)划分为高、中、低3个风险区,对不同风险区域采取针对性的防治措施.结果 影响广西鼠疫流行的主要因素为鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、黄胸鼠构成比、黄胸鼠密度、印鼠客蚤构成比和黄胸鼠印鼠客蚤指数.当风险分值＞0.6125时,即黄胸鼠和印鼠客蚤构成比均＞70%、室内黄胸鼠密度＞5%、黄胸鼠体的印鼠客蚤指数＞1等4项指标同时满足时,发生鼠疫疫情的风险高;当风险分值＜0.3775,即黄胸鼠和印鼠客蚤构成比均＜50%、室内黄胸鼠密度＜1%、黄胸鼠体的印鼠客蚤指数＜0.5等指标同时满足时,发生鼠疫疫情的风险低.结论 广西鼠疫预警模型的建立对促进广西鼠疫防治工作走向信息化、科学化和规范化具有重要意义.

Establishment and Application Research of a Plague Forecasting Model Based on Geographic Information System in Guangxi

Objective To establish a plague forecasting model for plague prediction and risk division management in Guangxi.Methods Main influencing factors of plague epidemics were screened by geographical information system(GIS) technique,and a forecasting model was established by using fuzzy mathematics methods.According to the risk scores assessed with the plague forecasting model,the 26 surveillance points were divided into high,medium and low risk areas,and different corresponding measures were taken in different risk areas to improve the effect of prevention and control.Results The main factors influencing the epidemic outbreak of plague in Guangxi included average density of rodents,infection rate of rodents with fleas,constituent ratio of R.flavipectus,density of R.flavipectus,constituent ratio of Xanthopsyllacheopis,and Xanthopsyllacheopis index of R.flavipectus.When the risk score>0.6125,the four following conditions simultaneously met:constituent ratio of R.flavipectus and Xanthopsyllacheopis>70%,density of R.flavipectus indoors>5%,and Xanthopsyllacheopis index of R.flavipectus>1,there was a high risk for a plague epidemic;When the risk score<0.3775,the four following conditions were simultaneously met:constituent ratio of R.flavipectus and Xanthopsyllacheopis<50%,density of R.flavipectus indoors<1%,and Xanthopsyllacheopis index of R.flavipectus<0.5,there was a low risk for a plague epidemic.Conclusion The plague forecasting model may play a role in the informatization,scientificalization and standardization of plague prevention and control in Guangxi.