1975至2014年上海市静安区户籍人口脑血管病死亡的流行趋势分析

目的 了解1975至2014年上海市静安区户籍人口脑血管病死亡的流行趋势，为制定预防控制策略和措施提供科学依据。方法 利用静安区1975至2014年居民死因监测资料，计算脑血管病粗死亡率，标化死亡率，40年间死亡率变化趋势及平均死亡年龄的变化趋势。结果 1975至2014年上海市静安区户籍人口脑血管病死亡的平均粗死亡率及标化死亡率分别为165.60/10万和120.54/10万，男女性的死亡率差异无统计学意义；40年间脑血管病粗死亡率呈上升趋势（χ 2趋势=10.58，P <0.001），标化死亡率呈逐年下降的线性趋势，用SAS系统中的AUTOREG（自回归）过程进行时间序列线性趋势拟合，回归模型有意义（t =32.13，P <0.001）；脑血管病平均死亡年龄呈逐年上升的线性趋势，采用时间序列线性趋势拟合，回归模型有意义（t =260.46，P <0.001）。结论 本文的研究结果提示上海市脑血管病的患病率将持续升高，而脑血管病的存活年龄逐年上升。

Trend Analysis on the Mortality of Cerebrovascular Diseases among Residents in Jing’an District of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014

Objective To analyze the trend of the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases among residents in
Jing’an District of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014, and to provide scientific evidence for developing
effective prevention and control strategies.
Methods Based on the death surveillance data of Jing'an District residents of Shanghai from 1975
to 2014, to calculate the crude mortality, standardized mortality rate, and to explore the trend of
mortality and average age of death of cerebrovascular diseases.
Results The crude mortality of cerebrovascular diseases was 16 560/105, the standardized mortality
rate was 12 054/105, and there is no significant difference between genders. There was an increasing
tendency of crude mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 1975 to 2014 (χ 2=10.58, P <0.01),
and the standardized mortality rate decreased linearly. Take time-series linear trend fitting with
AUTOREG process of SAS system. The regression model is meaningful(t =32.13, P <0.01). The
trend of average age of death of cerebrovascular diseases increased linearly.Take time-series linear
trend fitting with AUTOREG process of SAS system. The regression model is meaningful(t =260.46,
P <0.01).
Conclusion The results of this study suggest that the incidence of cerebral vascular disease will
continue to increase. But the high disability rate and high recurrence rate of cerebral vascular
disease, and the survival age rising year after year indicates that they will bring a heavy burden of
disease. Therefore, the government should further strengthen the first grade prevention of cerebral
vascular disease, and the average expectancy life will be improved, so the average health life.