基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的湖北省卫生人力资源需求预测研究

目的]对湖北省卫生人力资源需求进行预测,为区域卫生规划提供科学参考和依据。方法]运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,预测湖北省2018-2020年卫生人力资源需求,并与湖北省"十三五"规划发展指标进行比较分析。结果]运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型拟合的方程等级均为1级(P>0.95),拟合精度较好。模型拟合结果与2008-2017年的实际值比较卫生人员总数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数、管理人员数的平均误差值分别为1.17%、1.57%、1.72%、2.07%、2.22%;预测2020年湖北省每千常住人口卫生总人员数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数,管理人员数分别为10.17人、8.22人、2.94人、3.69人、0.37人,医护比为1∶1.45。结论]灰色系统GM(1,1)模型适用于卫生人力资源需求的预测,2020年湖北省每千人执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数和医护比等预测值均符合规划要求。

Study on the prediction of health human resource demand in Hubei province based on grey system

Objective To predict health human resource demand in Hubei province so as to provide scientific reference and basis for regional health planning.Methods It used grey system GM(1,1)model to predict the demand of health human resource from 2018 to 2020 in Hubei province,analyzed and compared with the planning development indicator of"the 13 th Five-year Plan".Results All the equation level of fitting by grey system were first level(P>0.95),fitting precision was good.The average error value of total number of health staff,number of health technical worker,number of practice(assistant)physician,number of registered nurse and manager was 1.17%,1.57%,1.72%,2.07%and 2.22%respectively between prediction result and actual value from 2008 to 2020.It predicts that of total number of health staff,number of health technical worker,number of practice(assistant)physician,number of registered nurse and manager will be 10.17,8.22,2.94,3.69 and 0.37 person per thousand permanent resident population in 2020,the ratio of doctor and nurse will be 1∶1.45.Conclusions Grey system GM(1,1)model is appropriate for the prediction of health human resource demand,the prediction value of practice(assistant)physician,number of registered nurse and ratio of doctor and nurse all conform to planning request.