省级中医机构财政拨款预测模型应用分析

[目的]探讨省级中医机构财政拨款预测建模办法,为中医类医院预算管理提供参考依据。[方法]基于全国中医药统计摘编1987-2016年中医机构财政拨款中全国及湖北省有关数据,探讨回归、ARIMA及指数平滑等3类多个模型,通过比较3类最优模型预测值与观测值的组内相关系数(intraclass correlation co-efficient,ICC),选择ICC值最大者为最终最优模型。[结果]最终最优回归预测模型表示为:湖北省中医机构财政拨款=-138.279+0.028×全国中医机构财政拨款。R 2为0.982,预测值与观测值之间的双向混合效应模型单个测量绝对一致ICC值为0.991。[结论]模型数据与实际数据拟合度高,选用的线性回归模型对湖北省中医机构财政拨款预测具有可行性,对该省中医类医院预算管理以及对其他省份的预测参考具有重要意义。

Analysis on prediction model application of financial allocationfor provincial Chinese Traditional Medicine institution

Objective To explore the method of forecasting and modeling the financial allocation of Chinese medicine institutions at provincial level so as to provide reference for budget management of Chinese medicine hospitals.Methods Based on the data of nationwide and Hubei province in national statistics of Chinese medicine institutions from 1987 to 2016,it discussed three types of multi-models of regression,ARIMA and index smoothing.By comparing intergroup correlation coefficients(ICC)between three types of optimal model predicted values and observed values(intraclass correlation co-efficient,ICC),selected the biggest of ICC value as the final optimal mode.Results The final optimal regression prediction model showed that financial allocation of Hubei Chinese medicine institutions=-138.279+0.028 national financial allocation of Chinese medicine institutions.R 2 was 0.982,and the single measurement of bidirectional mixed effect model between predicted value and observed value was absolutely consistent which ICC value was 0.991.Conclusions Model data and actual data fit well,the chosen linear regression model is feasible for financial allocation forecast of Hubei traditional Chinese medicine institutions,and it has great significance to budget management of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in the province and to the forecast reference of other provinces.