用捕获-再捕获方法对桐柏县疟疾流行现状的评估

目的　掌握豫南桐柏县的疟疾真实发病情况 ,评估疟疾在该区域的流行现状。　方法　采用捕获 -再捕获统计学方法 (CRM) ,估计该县的疟疾发病数和发病率。　结果　调查 12个村 ,4 0 5 8户 ,访问居民 194 0 7人 ,查出 2 0 0 0年疟疾 30 9例 (疫情报告 14 0例 ) ,用 CRM处理后 ,估计病例为 396例 ,推算全县发病人数为 95 86例 ,这一总体理论值是全县疫情报告 2 70 4例的 3.5 5倍。　结论　桐柏县的疟疾实际发病率约为 2 .2 7% ,且有发病率超过 10 %的暴发点 ,提示该县的疟疾流行形势严峻。在当前传染源漏报普遍存在的情况下 ,CRM不失为疫情漏报调查的一种好办法。在发病呈点状和带状分布的嗜人按蚊媒介地区 ,用 CRM时 ,应根据发病率的高、低进行多级别的分层来抽取调查点 ,避免数据出现较大的误差

EVALUATION ON CURRENT MALARIA PREVALENCE BY USING CAPTURE AND RE-CAPTURE METHOD IN TONGBAI COUNTY, HENAN PROVINCE

Objective Ensure to provide a relative real figure of malaria prevalence in Tongbai County, the southern part of Henan and evaluate current epidemic situation in the area. Methods Household survey through stratified sampling method was carried out. By using capture and re capture method (CRM) to compare detected malaria cases with that registered in case report system (CRS) and enabled the difference of the number of cases for the estimation of malaria cases and its incidence rate. Results 19 407 residents in 4 085 household within 12 villages in Cuxian, Anpeng and Yuehe townships were investigated. 309 malaria cases in the Year of 2000 were detected (140 cases were registered by CRS); the incidence rate of the investigated cases was 0.85%, 1.19% and 2.98 % respectively. After treated by CRM, the estimated cases were 396 and estimated incidence rate was 1.36%, 1.43% and 3.71 % respectively. Therefore, it was deduced that the whole county might get 9 586 malaria cases and the incidence rate would be 2.27 %. Conclusion The malaria cases in the county by CRM was 3.55 times higher than that registered in county CRS(2 704 cases). Moreover, an outbreak site with incidence rate of 10% was detected. It was indicated that the malaria epidemic situation was serious in that county. The result showed that CRM would be considered as a good method to monitor the CRS for missing cases especially case drops out commonly existed. In the area where malaria incidence appeared as spot and belt distribution with An. anthropophagus , CRM should be used and adjusted in accordance with different incidence rate, either high or low, and multi level stratification sampling means should be adopted to get investigation spots in order to avoid statistic errors.