甲型H1N1流感病毒HA基因的简单重复序列预测

目的:探讨应用ARIMA模型对甲型H1N1流感病毒血凝素(hemagglutinin,HA)基因简单重复序列(simple sequencerepeats,SSRs)的相对丰度和相对密度值进行预测的可行性,为防控流感流行制定措施提供科学依据。方法:应用Eviews 6.0软件对1970～2007年38条同源性相对较高的甲流H1N1流感病毒HA核苷酸序列中SSRs的相对丰度和相对密度进行拟合,建立时间序列模型,用模型对2008～2010年SSRs的相对丰度和相对密度进行预测,并用实际数据评估模型预测效果,进而预测2011年数据。结果:ARIMA模型较好地拟合了既往相对丰度和相对密度的实际序列,对2008～2010年的相对丰度和相对密度的预测也获得了较好的预测效果。结论:ARIMA模型能较好地模拟甲型H1N1流感病毒HA基因中SSRs的相对丰度和相对密度的变动趋势,可用于SSRs相对丰度和相对密度值的短期预测和动态分析。

Forecast of SSRs in hemagglutinin sequences of influenza viruses A/H1N1

Objective:To explore the feasibility of using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the relative abundance and relative density of simple sequence repeats(SSRs)in Hemagglutinin Sequences of influenza viruses A/H1N1,and to provide scientific basis for measures of preventing and controlling influenza pandemic. Methods:Eviews 6.0 software was utilized to construct the ARIMA model based on the relative abundance and relative density of SSRs in hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of influenza A with high homology from 1970 to 2007,and the constructed model was applied to predict the relative abundance and relative density from 2008 to 2010.The model was evaluated by actual data and then used to forecast the data of 2011. Results:The ARIMA model exactly fitted the relative abundance and relative density of the previous time series,and got a good predicting result on the data of 2008 to 2010. Conclusion:The ARIMA model can be used to make a short-term prediction and a dynamic analysis on the relative abundance and relative density of SSRs.