山东省主要恶性肿瘤死亡率地域分布的趋势面分析

目的研究山东省主要恶性肿瘤死亡率的地域分布。方法利用山东省各地市主要恶性肿瘤 的死亡率资料，进行趋势面分析。结果胃癌、肝癌、食管癌死亡率的分布有明显的地域规律性。其中，胃癌死亡率在省内呈由东向西逐渐降低，肝癌死亡率鲁中高于周边地区，食管癌则呈现由东向西逐渐增高的趋势。另外，有些地区的剩余值明显高于(或低于)剩余界值，呈现出规律外的特殊性。结论胃癌、肝癌、食管癌死亡率在山东省内有地域差异，应进一步研究具体地理环境、生活习惯、经济状况等因素的差异及与相关肿瘤的关系，对于存在异常剩余值的地区，应作为重点研究对象，探讨这些地区可能存在的某种肿瘤保护或危险因素。

A TREND-SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE MALIGNANT TUMOR MORTALITY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

Objective:To study the geographical distribution of the malignant tumor mortality in Shandong Province. Methods:Utilizing the tumor mortality data of different regions in Shandong Province,the trend surface analysis,a statistical method of fitting curved surface based on multivariate regression analysis, was performed. Results:The mortality of stomach, liver and esophagus cancer had geographical distribution trends in Shandong Province.Stomach cancer mortality decreased gradually from east to west,liver cancer mortality was higher in the center than that of the peripheral areas,and esophagus cancer mortality escalated from east to west.In addition,the residual value in some areas exceeded the limited residual value,which indicated that some particular affecting factors maybe exist in those areas. Conclusion:The mortality of stomach,liver and esophagus cancer varied geographically in Shandong Province. Research should be performed on the difference of the environment,living habit, the economic situation in different areas, and the relationship between these factors and the relative tumor mortality.Attention should also be paid to the areas whose residual values are anomalous to study the particular protecting or hazardous factors.