CLINICO-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING SYSTEMIC ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION AT HIGH ALTITUDE THROUGH MATHEMATICAL MODELLING |
| |
| Authors: | RAJVIR BHALWAR HS SANDHU RC AHUJA GK SINGH RP MISRA |
| |
| Affiliation: | aClassified Specialist (PSM), Post-Doctoral Fellow, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, King George''s Medical College, Lucknow;bSr. Adv (PSM), ADH, HQ Central command, Lucknow;cAssoc Prof, Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, Lucknow;dAssoc Prof, Ortho and Clinical Epidemiology, Lucknow;eBiostatistician, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, King George''s Medical College, Lucknow |
| |
| Abstract: | A population based hybrid design combining element of cohort and cross-sectional approach was used to develop a simple clinical algorithm to predict individual probability of developing hypertension (systolic BP > 140 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP > 90 mmHg). 3615 soldiers initially normotensive at the time of induction into high altitude, were studied by systematic random sampling. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed a high significant association between hypertension and age, body mass index (BMI), tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Using the constant/coefficient values obtained from the logistic model and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, the following predictive rule was developed – To the age in years, add (BMIx 3.86); also add 5.53 if he is a smoker; and add 19.81 if he consumes alcohol. If the total exceeds 142, the individual is at high risk of developing hypertension. This algorithm carries a sensitivity of 68.2% and specificity of 78.5%.KEY WORDS: Hypertension, High altitude |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
|
