TG/HDL-C、TyG、non-HDL-C预测中老年女性代谢综合征价值

目的 评价甘油三酯/高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(TG/HDL-C)、甘油三酯葡萄糖简易指数(TyG指数)、非高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(non-HDL-C)对中老年女性代谢综合征(MS)发病风险的预测价值。方法 2011年-2014年开展队列研究,纳入40周岁及以上大连社区女性居民2 098例。通过二元Logistic回归模型分析TG/HDL-C、TyG指数、non-HDL-C与新诊断MS的关系,通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析3个指标对MS发病的预测价值。结果 随访新诊断MS 363例(17.30%)。二元Logistic回归分析显示TG/HDL-C、TyG指数、non-HDL-C升高均是MS发生的独立危险因素(OR=2.297,95%CI 1.822~2.897,OR=3.370,95%CI 2.515~4.516,OR=1.555, 95%CI 1.367~1.770,均P<0.01)。ROC曲线分析显示3个指标预测MS发病的AUC分别为0.721、0.708、0.614(均P<0.05),合适切点为0.70、8.49、4.06。TG/HDL-C、TyG指数的AUC大于non-HDL-C(Z=6.113,Z=5.819,均P<0.01)。结论 中老年女性TG/HDL-C、TyG指数、non-HDL-C升高是3年后MS发病的独立危险因素,TG/HDL-C、TyG指数对MS发病有较好的预测价值。

TG/HDL-C,TyG and non-HDL-C in predition of metabolic syndrome incidence in middle-aged and elderly women

Objective To investigate the predictive values of TG/HDL-C,TyG index and non-HDL-C for incidence risk of metabolic syndrome(MS) in middle-aged and elderly women. Methods A cohort study was performed from 2011 to 2014 in communities in Dalian by recruiting 2,098 female residents aged ≥40 years. Binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship between TG/HDL-C, TyG index, non-HDL-C and MS of new diagnosis. ROC curve was built in three indicators for their predictive values in MS. Results Totally 363 MS cases(17.30%) were diagnosed from follow-up participants(n=2,098). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that elevated TG/HDL-C, TyG index and non-HDL-C were independent risk factors in MS (OR=2.297, 95%CI 1.822-2.897, OR=3.370, 95%CI 2.515-4.516, OR=1.555, 95%CI 1.367-1.770, P<0.01). AUC of three indicators was 0.721, 0.708 and 0.614 respectively in predicting MS(P<0.05), and optimal cut-off value was 0.70, 8.49 and 4.06. AUC was larger in both TG/HDL-C and TyG index than in non-HDL-C (Z=6.113, Z=5.819, all P<0.01). Conclusion Higher TG/HDL-C, TyG index and non-HDL-C for three years were independent risks of MS in middle-aged and elderly women. TG/HDL-C and TyG index showed good predictions for MS.