基于系统基模的慢性病主要危险因素分析及对策研究

目的 了解我国慢性病流行趋势,探讨影响慢性病患病的主要危险因素,并针对性提出预防慢性病的管理策略和措施,为我国慢性病的防控提供参考依据。 方法 基于《2015中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》数据结果,采用SPSS 17.0统计学软件分析我国慢性病的变化趋势;利用Venple 5.1软件,从系统工程角度出发,借助彼得·圣吉的系统基模分析构建慢性病主要危险因素的相关基模,系统分析其因果结构,并提出相应的管理对策及建议。 结果 数据显示,2013年我国慢性病患病率高达33.1%,比2003年(15.1%)高于18个百分点;从居民疾病别两周患病率数据中可以发现,高血压(2013年患病率为9.89%,2003年为1.19%)、糖尿病(2013年患病率为2.65%,2003年为0.22%)患病率增加是导致慢性病患病率增长较快的主要原因之一。慢性病已成为我国城乡居民主要死亡原因。环境、生活及行为因素、人口老龄化和遗传因素均是慢性病的主要影响因素。 结论 我国慢性病患病率呈明显上升,且呈现年轻化趋势,给我国社会经济发展带来挑战。利用系统基模方法分析慢性病的危险因素,能够体现系统反馈结构和行为的动态性与整体性,这既是方法学研究的进一步拓展,也是基模分析方法在慢性病领域中的具体应用。建议加大政府的政策和资金支持,加强社区的健康教育与健康促进,促进对不良生活行为方式的健康管理工作等。 

Analysis of main risk factors and countermeasures of chronic diseases based on systems archetypes

Objective To understand the epidemic trend of chronic diseases in China, explore the main risk factors affecting chronic diseases, and put forward management strategies and measurements to prevent chronic diseases, and provide reference for the prevention and control of chronic diseases in China. Methods Based on the data of China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2015, trend of chronic diseases was analyzed using SPSS 17.0 software. From the perspective of system engineering, the archetypes of the main risk factors was constructed using the systems archetypes analysis of Peter St. Gill. The causal structure was systematically analyzed, and the corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions were put forward. Results The prevalence of chronic diseases in China was 33.1% in 2013, which was higher than that in 2003 (15.1%). Increasing prevalence of hypertension (9.89% in 2013 vs. 1.19% in 2003) and diabetes (2.65% in 2013 vs. 0.22% in 2003) was one of the main reasons for the rapid growth of chronic diseases. Chronic diseases have become the main cause of death for urban and rural residents in China. Environment, life and behavioral factors, population ageing, and genetic factors were the main influencing factors of chronic diseases. Conclusion The prevalence of chronic diseases in China has increased significantly and shown a younger trend, which brings challenges to China's social and economic development. Analyzing the risk factors of chronic diseases by using the system archetypes method can reflect the dynamic and integrity of the feedback structure and behavior of the system. This is not only the further development of the methodological research, but also the specific application of the archetypes analysis method in the field of chronic diseases. It is suggested to increase government policy and financial support, strengthen community health education and health promotion, and promote the health management of bad lifestyles.