天津市大气污染对儿童呼吸系统疾病影响的病例交叉研究

  目的  探求大气污染对天津市儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响，为疾病的预防与控制提供依据。  方法  利用单污染物和多污染物条件Logistic回归模型，来估计空气污染物浓度和儿童呼吸系统疾病发病之间的关系。  结果  单污染物条件Logistic回归模型显示，大气中NO₂、PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO的超额危险度(excess risk rate，ER)及其95%CI分别为2.823%(2.581~3.065)、0.476%(0.382~0.569)、0.437%(0.368~0.506)、22.263%(15.449~29.478)。多污染物条件Logistic回归分析显示:在寒冷季节，NO₂暴露对儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响效应最大，ER及其95%CI为7.395%(6.595~8.202)。  结论  NO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO日平均浓度的升高可以增高儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生风险。

The impact of air pollution on children's respiratory diseases in Tianjin: a case-over study

  Objective  To explore the effect of air pollution on children's respiratory diseases in Tianjin, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of diseases.  Methods  Conditional Logistic regression model of single pollutant and multiple pollutants was used to estimate the relationships between air pollutants concentration and children's respiratory system diseases.  Results  Conditional Logistic regression model of single pollutant conditions showed that the excess risk (ER) effects and 95% CI of NO₂, PM2.5, PM₁₀ and CO appeared were 2.823%(2.581-3.065), 0.476%(0.382-0.569), 0.437%(0.368-0.506), 22.263%(15.449-29.478), respectively. Logistic regression analysis of multiple pollutants conditions showed that NO₂ exposure had the greatest effect on children's respiratory diseases in cold season, and the excess risk (ER) was 7.395%(6.595-8.202).  Conclusion  The elevated daily average concentration of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and CO can increase the risk of children's respiratory diseases.