中国部分省份手足口病传染率分析

目的  了解不同气候带省份手足口病(hand，foot and mouth disease，HFMD)发病数的周期性，传染率的季节性及影响因素，为HFMD的防治提供科学的参考依据。 方法  选取海南省、湖南省、山东省、青海省和内蒙古自治区这5个具有气候代表性的省，利用小波变换分析各省HFMD发病数周期性，建立时间序列易感者-感染者-康复者(time series susceptible infected recovered，TSIR)模型，应用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛方法(markov chain monte carlo，MCMC)估计TSIR模型中参数，分析各省以及全国的HFMD的传染率季节性；最后建立线性回归模型分析气候、假期和春运对传染率季节性的影响。 结果  (1) 不同气候带的各省的HFMD传染率均呈季节性，且有相似的模式，2月至5月为高峰期；(2)HFMD的传染率季节性既受气候的影响，又受人群接触率的影响：内蒙古自治区的HFMD传染率仅受相对湿度的影响，其他各省的传染率仅受春运的影响。 结论  HFMD传染率有明显季节性，在2月有大幅度增加，春运期间要加强对其防控。

Analysis of transmission rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in different provinces in China

  Objective  To understand the periodicity of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in representative provinces from different climatic zones in China, and to analyze the seasonality and the factors influencing the HFMD transmission rate, to provide a scientific reference for the prevention and treatment of HFMD.  Methods  Five climate-representative provinces including Hainan, Hunan, Shandong, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia were selected as research objects. Wavelet analysis was used to analyze the cyclic pattern of HFMD incidence. Time series susceptible infected recovered (TSIR) model was established to examine the HFMD transmission rate of the five provinces and of the entire country. The parameters in the TSIR model were estimated by markov chain monte carlo (MCMC). Linear regression model was used to analyze the effects of climate factors, school terms and the Spring Festival travel rush on the transmission rate of HFMD.  Results  (1) HFMD incidence in the provinces and the entire country exhibited annual or semi-annual cycles and the transmission rates in all provinces showed obvious seasonality with similar patterns. February to May was the peak period of HFMD transmission rate. (2) The transmission rate of HFMD was affected by the climate or the contact rate, depending on which factor was dominant.  Conclusions  The transmission rate of HFMD had obvious seasonality, which had increased significantly in February, and it was necessary to strengthen its prevention and control during the Spring Festival.