Risk of CIN2 or more severe lesions after negative HPV-mRNA E6/E7 overexpression assay and after negative HPV-DNA test: Concurrent cohorts with a 5-year follow-up

Aim of this study was to compare the 5-year risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+)/CIN3+ and the performance parameters at 3-year rescreening of a negative E6/E7 mRNA-human papillomavirus (HPV) test with those of a HPV-DNA-negative test. We studied a cohort of HPV-negative women tested with the Aptima HPV-mRNA Assay (“HPV-mRNA cohort”) versus a cohort of HPV negatives tested with the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) DNA test living in neighboring areas. Both cohorts were rescreened after 3 years by a HPV-DNA test (HC2 or Cobas 4800 HPV test). HPV test positivity, referral to colposcopy and detection of CIN2+ at 3-year rescreening were computed. The Veneto Cancer Registry was checked to search for invasive cancers and CIN3 diagnosed up to 5 years from the negative baseline test. Some 22,338 HPV-mRNA and 68,695 HPV-DNA-negative women were invited to 3-year rescreening, and, respectively, 16,641 (74.5%) and 54,630 (79.6%) complied with the invitation. The proportion of HPV-positive tests, referral to colposcopy and detection of CIN2+ in the HPV-mRNA and HPV-DNA cohorts were, respectively. 4.0 and 3.9% (ratio 1.08; 95% confidence interval CI] 0.99–1.17), 2.6 and 2.5% (ratio 1.06, 95% CI 0.95–1.18) and 1.4 and 1.7‰ (ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.54–1.33). The relative 5-year cumulative risk of cancer and of CIN2+ in the HPV-mRNA and HPV-DNA cohorts were 4.5 and 8.7/100,000 (ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.01–4.22) and 1.1 and 1.5/1,000 (ratio 0.74; 95%CI 0.45–1.16), respectively. A negative HPV-mRNA test confers a risk of invasive cervical carcinoma and of CIN2+ at 5 years comparable to that of a negative HPV-DNA test.