The role of bcl-2, p53, and ki-67 index in predicting tumor recurrence for low grade superficial transitional cell bladder carcinoma

PURPOSE: We assess the prognostic significance of bcl-2 expression, p53 mutation and ki-67 index for low grade, superficial transitional cell bladder carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The medical records of 93 cases of primary, low grade (24 G1, 69 G2), superficial (70 pTa, 23 pT1) transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder were reviewed. Association of bcl-2, p53 and ki-67 index immunoreactivity with tumor grade and stage was examined. Prognostic significance of tumor grade, pathological stage, bcl-2 expression, p53 mutation and ki-67 index in predicting tumor recurrence was assessed. RESULTS: Of the tumors 60 (70%) had p53 mutation and 9 (10.5%) expressed bcl-2. These 2 markers did not relate to tumor grade or pathological stage. Median ki-67 index was 10.9% and positively correlated with tumor grade. Recurrence was noted in 34.9% of patients with a median followup of 26 months (range 1 to 84). The ki-67 index was the only significant prognostic indicator in univariate and multivariate analyses. This marker can further distinguish grade 2 tumors with a favorable prognosis from those with an unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ki-67 labeling index is an independent predictor of tumor recurrence for patients with primary superficial, low grade bladder cancers.