国内外长期护理保险研究评述

随着我国人口老龄化程度不断加剧，失能老年人的长期照护需求激增，建立健全适合我国国情的长期护理保险（长护险）制度至关重要。其中，筹资是长护险的核心，也是形成保险资金的基础，它反映了资金筹集的内在机理与制衡，如何构建公平、合理且可持续的筹资机制是建立长护险制度面临的首要问题。相比国外，目前国内研究内容上缺乏对于长护险筹资模式在保障水平方面的系统评价，且较多采用传统分析方法，缺少针对筹资水平的政策仿真等量化研究，未来需重点关注长护险的公平、效率及其可持续性，从而为制定可持续性长护险筹资政策提供循证依据。

Prediction of the number of and care costs for disabled elderly from 2020 to 2050: a comparison between urban and rural areas in China

With the increased population aging in China, the demand on long-term care for disabled elderly is increasing rapidly. To deal with the situation, it is critical to establish a long-term care insurance (LTCI) system suitable for the Chinese context and financing is the core for both the development of the LTCI system and the foundation of the insurance funds. How to construct a fair, reasonable and sustainable financing mechanism is the primary problem for the establishment of an LTCI system. Compared with those in foreign countries, the domestic researches are with more traditional methods and lack of systematic evaluation on the LTCI financing model and quantitative research, such as policy simulation, on financing level in terms of security level. Future researches in China should focus on the fairness, efficiency and sustainability of LTCI to provide evidences for the establishment of a sustainable financing mechanism. This study summarizes the progress in overseas and domestic researches on the LTCI financing mechanism.