广州市SARS流行的数学建模与干预措施的定量评估

  目的   描述辽宁省新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播特征，估算时点再生数，为制定和评价防控策略、采取防控措施提供科学依据。  方法   对中国疾病预防控制传染病监测信息系统中，截至2020年2月22日的辽宁省确诊病例数据进行整理分析，采用EpiEstim Excel®程序包计算时点再生数。  结果   辽宁省输入病例占68.60 %，聚餐、探亲和生活交往是传播的主要感染途径，早期时点再生数为4.28，2月2日至2月16日，时点再生数从4.28下降到0.23，2月10日有效再生数下降到1以下。  结论   辽宁省针对新冠肺炎疫情的防控策略制定得当、防控措施落实迅速，有效遏制了疫情在省内的蔓延。

A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics

  Objective   To describe transmission characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Liaoning province and to estimate instantaneous regeneration number of the viral infection for providing evidences to formulate and evaluate control strategies of COVID-19 epidemic.   Methods   The data on 121 COVID-19 cases confirmed in Liaoning province from January 11 to February 22, 2020 were extracted from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and analyzed with EpiEstim Excel ® program package to calculate the instantaneous regeneration number of COVID-19 transmission.   Results   The majority (68.60%) of the confirmed COVID-19 patients in the province were imported cases and dining together, visiting relatives or friends and contacting in daily life were main ways of the disease transmission. The instantaneous regeneration number was 4.28 at the early stage of the epidemic in the province; then the number decreased from 4.28 to 0.23 during the period from 2nd to 16th February 2020 and the effective regeneration number declined to less than 1.0 from February 10th 2020.   Conclusion   With timely development and implementation of proper prevention and control measures, the COVID-19 epidemic was effectively contained in Liaoning province.