灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型预测百色市疟疾发病趋势

目的建立疟疾疫情预测模型GM（1,1）,应用于百色疟疾发病率的预测。方法根据2000～2010年百色疟疾发病率数据,建立疟疾发病率预测灰色模型GM（1,1）,并作拟合效果检验;外推预测2011～2013年百色区疟疾发病率。结果疟疾发病率预测数学模型为X（t）=3.71056128e-0.329307（t-1）（t=2,3,……,n）,经拟合检验,模型拟合精度合格（C=0.4069,P=0.9000）。外推2011～2013年百色疟疾发病率,分别为0.0991/10万、0.0713/10万和0.0513/10万。结论GM（1,1）模型较好地拟合了百色疟疾发病的趋势,预测结果具有参考价值。

Prediction of malaria incidence trend in Baise city with grey system model(GM 1,1)

Objective To establish grey system model GM（1.1） and predict malaria incidence trend in Baise City in Guangxi province.Methods The predicting-model GM（1.1） was established at the basis of epidemiological data of malaria in Baise City during 2000～2010,and tested fitting effect.malaria incidence from 2011 to 2013 in Baise City was predicted by the predicting-model GM（1.1）.Results Predicting-model GM（1.1） was X（t）=3.71056128e-0.329307（t-1）（t= 2,3,……,n）,according to the result of fitting test fitting accuracy of the model was valid（C=0.4069,P=0.9000）.The predicting results of malaria incidence from 2011 to 2013 in Baise City was 0.0991 per hundred thousands,0.0713 per hundred thousands and 0.0513 per hundred thousands respectively.Conclusion the malaria morbidity tendency in Baise City were fitted using this predicting-molel GM（1.1） and the predicting results had reference value.