Lipid and lipoprotein predictors of coronary heart disease in elderly men in the Honolulu Heart Program.

Data from the baseline and follow-up examinations of the Honolulu Heart Program (HHP) cohort of 8006 men of Japanese ancestry were used to examine several questions concerning the predictive role of lipids and lipoproteins for incident CHD. For the question "Do serum cholesterol levels measured in middle age predict incident CHD in elderly men 65 years old or older?" the answer was clearly yes. Multivariate relative risks and attributable risks for early and late onset of CHD were similar and statistically significant. For the question "Do serum cholesterol levels measured in the elderly predict subsequent CHD?" the answer again was clearly yes. Multivariate relative risks for elderly men were similar to those for middle-aged men, and attributable risks were consistently higher for elderly men. For the question "Do other lipid or lipoprotein levels measured in the elderly predict incident CHD better than serum cholesterol level?" the answer was no. Multivariate relative risks for low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) and non-high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol were similar to those for total cholesterol. HDL cholesterol was protective for incident CHD, but the patterns were not significant for the elderly. Serum triglyceride level was not a significant predictor of CHD for the elderly. The conclusion was that no matter at what age serum cholesterol was measured, it predicted subsequent CHD in the elderly men in this cohort.