1990-2015年天津市滨海新区甲状腺癌流行特征及长期发病趋势分析

目的 分析1990-2015年天津市滨海新区甲状腺癌流行趋势及特征。方法 利用天津市滨海新区肿瘤监测数据,计算1990-2015年滨海新区甲状腺癌发病率、标化发病率、累积率(0~74岁)以及截缩率(35~64岁);采用Joinpoint回归分析26年间甲状腺癌发病趋势;采用χ2检验比较不同地区甲状腺癌发病率情况。结果 天津市滨海新区1990-2015年甲状腺癌新发病例共3 178例,粗发病率为12.36/10万,标化发病率为9.97/10万,男、女标化发病率比例为1∶3.09。26年间滨海新区甲状腺癌发病率及标化发病率均呈明显上升趋势,其中以2010-2013年甲状腺癌发病率上升最为迅速年度变化百分比(APC)=53.62%,P<0.05];滨海新区3个不同地区甲状腺癌发病率南高北低(χ2=115.270,P<0.001),且甲状腺癌发病增长速度南快北慢(南部地区APC=18.95%,中部地区APC=13.30%,北部地区APC=9.61%)。结论 1990-2015年滨海新区甲状腺癌发病率增长迅速,且滨海新区南部地区甲状腺癌发病率较北部地区升高。

Epidemiological characteristics and long-term trends of thyroid cancer in Binhai New Area of Tianjin from 1990 to 2015

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of thyroid cancer in Binhai New Area of Tianjin from 1990 to 2015.Methods Data from Binhai New Area of Tianjin Cancer Register were collected.The incidence,standardized incidence,cumulative rate(0-74 years)and truncated rate(35-64 years)of thyroid cancer in Binhai New Area from 1990 to 2015 were calculated.The trends of incidence of thyroid cancer in 26 years were analyzed by Joinpoint regression.The incidences of thyroid cancer in different regions were compared by chi-square test.Results A total of 3178 new cases of thyroid cancer were reported in Binhai New Area of Tianjin from 1990 to 2015;the average incidence was 12.36/100000,standardized incidence was 9.97/100000,and the ratio of male to female for standardized incidence was 1∶3.09.During 26 years,the incidence and standardization incidence of thyroid cancer in Binhai New Area showed an obvious rising trend,especially from 2010 to 2013annual percentage change(APC)=53.26%,P<0.05).In the three different regions of Binhai New Area,the incidence of thyroid cancer in the northern part of the city was significantly lower than that in the southern(χ2=115.270,P<0.001),and the growth rate of thyroid cancer incidence was fast in the south and slow in the north(southern area APC=18.95%,middle area APC=18.95%,northern area APC=18.95%).Conclusion From 1990 to 2015,the incidence of thyroid cancer increases rapidly,and the incidence of thyroid cancer in the southern area is higher than that in the northern of Binhai New Area of Tianjin.