基于关联规则的某县农村居民疾病风险研究

目的：了解某地农民疾病风险发生规律与特点,研究新农合管理决策措施。方法：利用关联规则分析与疾病频率和疾病费用相关的强关联规则。结果：与疾病频率相关联的强规则是：住院分娩=〉女性、骨折、阑尾疾病=〉男性,年龄≥65岁=〉循环系统疾病、年龄〈15岁=〉消化系统疾病和年龄≤5岁=〉呼吸系统疾病等;与住院费用相关的强规则是：（损伤、中毒）U（县级住院）=〉高级别费用、地市级以上的住院=〉高级别费用;与补偿后较高个人负担相关的规则是：（年龄〈0.5岁）U（性别=男）=〉（报销后自负费用〉2 500元）。结论：当地新农合管理应加强高危人群的重点疾病风险控制、完善转诊（会诊）制度、扩大新农合婴幼儿用药报销范围等是降低新农合基金支出、降低个人疾病风险应慎重考虑的措施。

Disease risk study of residents in a county based on association rule

Objective To find out the rule and character of country resident’s disease risk in a county and some management measures about New Rural Cooperative Medical System(NRCMS).Methods Association rule analysis was used to find some strong rules with disease frequency and disease charge.Results The strong rules about disease frequency were delivery in hospital=>female,(fracture or appendix disease) => male,age above 65=> circulatory system disease,age below 15=> digest disease and age below 5 =>respiratory disease etc.The strong rules associated with disease charge after compensation by NRCMS were(age below 0.5 year old)U(sex=male)=>(charge>2500 yuan).Conclusions Enhancement of disease risk control of high risk population,perfection of referrer(consultation) system,and extension of the NRCMS’ coverage of medicine for infants are all the measures which can reduce the payout of NRCMS’ fund and decrease the disease risk of individuals.