Validation of the SAPS 3 admission prognostic model in patients with cancer in need of intensive care

Objectives To validate the SAPS 3 admission prognostic model in patients with cancer admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).Design Cohort study.Setting Ten-bed medical–surgical oncologic ICU.Patients and participants Nine hundred and fifty-two consecutive patients admitted over a 3-year period.Interventions None.Measurements and results Data were prospectively collected at admission of ICU. SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores with respective estimated mortality rates were calculated. Discrimination was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and calibration by Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The mean age was 58.3 ± 23.1 years; there were 471 (49%) scheduled surgical, 348 (37%) medical and 133 (14%) emergency surgical patients. ICU and hospital mortality rates were 24.6% and 33.5%, respectively. The mean SAPS 3 and SAPS II scores were 52.3 ± 18.5 points and 35.3 ± 20.7 points, respectively. All prognostic models showed excellent discrimination (AUROC ≥ 0.8). The calibration of SAPS II was poor (p < 0.001). However, the calibration of standard SAPS 3 and its customized equation for Central and South American (CSA) countries were appropriate (p > 0.05). SAPS II and standard SAPS 3 prognostic models tended somewhat to underestimate the observed mortality (SMR > 1). However, when the customized equation was used, the estimated mortality was closer to the observed mortality [SMR = 0.95 (95% CI = 0.84–1.07)]. Similar results were observed when scheduled surgical patients were excluded.Conclusions The SAPS 3 admission prognostic model at ICU admission, in particular its customized equation for CSA, was accurate in our cohort of critically ill patients with cancer.This work was performed at the Intensive Care Unit, Instituto Nacional de Cancer, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Financial support: institutional departmental funds. Conflicts of interest: none.