2014年11月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2014年11月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计11月仍将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,全国总报告事件数和病例数将与10月相当。我国(未含香港、澳门及台湾地区,下同)存在埃博拉出血热病例输入的风险,但综合考虑疫情形势及我国的防控策略,发生境内疫情扩散的可能性低;但该病病死率极高,一旦出现输入性病例会造成较大的社会影响。近期新疆、江苏相继发生人感染H7N9禽流感病例,且南方部分省份活禽市场活禽交易重现,病例有逐渐增加的可能。目前我国登革热疫情已呈下降趋势,11月疫情出现大规模反弹的可能性小。流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高,学校等人群聚集场所可能会陆续出现暴发疫情。近期,中东呼吸综合征在沙特连续数日均有病例报告,在部分地区甚至出现聚集性病例,我国存在输入风险,但进一步播散的风险仍为低。我国北方地区已逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论 2014年11月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较高水平;需重点关注西非埃博拉出血热疫情,我国人感染H7N9禽流感疫情,同时关注登革热、流行性感冒及中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in China,November 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in November 2014. Methods An internet based experts counsel w as conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of the previous surveillance data and incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months,it is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies or communicable diseases w ould be still high in November,similar to that in October. The risk of spread of Ebola virus disease（ EVD） to China still exists,but according to the evaluation of the current status of the epidemic and ow ing to the prevention and control measures taken by China,the possibility of EVD＇s transmission in China is low. How ever,due to the high case fatality of EVD,the impact to China＇s public health w ould be serious once the importation of the virus occurs. Human infections w ith influenza A（ H7N9） virus w ere reported in Xinjiang and Jiangsu in October. Given the restart of live poultry trade in some southern provinces,human cases infected w ith H7N9 virus w ould increase. The size of dengue fever epidemic has become smaller and is not likely to rebound in November. The incidence of respiratory disease,such as influenza,w ould increase seasonally and the outbreaks might occur in schools and other public places. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating w ould increase in northern China during the w inter. M ERS-Co Vcases have been reported for several consecutive days in Saudi Arabia and the case clustering have been observed in some areas recently. The risk of imported M ERS still exists in China,but large scale outbreak might not occur. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidences of public