2014年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2014年12月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,12月仍将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,预计全国总报告事件数和病例数将较11月略有升高。我国存在埃博拉出血热病例输入的风险,但综合考虑疫情形势及我国的防控策略,发生境内疫情扩散的可能性低;但该病病死率极高,一旦出现输入性病例会造成较大的社会影响。近期新疆、江苏、浙江、广东省(自治区)相继发生人感染H7N9禽流感病例,且南方部分省份活禽市场活禽交易重现,病例有逐渐增多的可能。流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高,学校等人群聚集场所可能会陆续出现暴发疫情。我国北方地区已逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论2014年12月全国突发公共卫生事件较11月将略有升高;需重点关注我国人感染H7N9禽流感、流行性感冒、诺如病毒导致的胃肠炎暴发,以及埃博拉出血热、EV-D68病毒疫情对我国的影响。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,December 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2014. Methods An internet based experts counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be still high in December, slightly higher than that in November. The risk of spread of Ebola virus disease （EVD） to China still exists, but according to the evaluation of the current status of the epidemic and owing to the prevention and control measures taken by China, the possibility of EVD＇s transmission in China is low. However, due to the high case fatality of EVD, the impact to China＇ s public health would be serious once the importation of the virus occurs. Recently human infection with avian influenza A （H7N9） virus have been occurred in Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces （autonomous region）. Live poultry markets were re-opened in several southern provinces, more cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would be occurred. Seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases are prone to occur now, and the outbreaks might occur in schools and other public places. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating would increase in northern China during the winter. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidecne of public health emergencies or communiicabte diseases would be sllightly higher in December than in November 2014. It is necessary to pay close attention to the incidences of human infection with H7N9 virus and seasonal infeluenza, the outbreak of norovirus caused gastro