用流行控制图法对阳泉市2012年猩红热发病预测预报

目的 用流行控制图法对猩红热的发病进行预测预报,为今后的预防控制工作提供参考依据。 方法 以各月发病最大值作上限线,以各月发病中位数作中位数线,制成猩红热流行控制图,然后把拟预测流行年的前两个月的发病率绘制在流行控制图上,观察点的分布位置及趋势,对发病强度做出定性预测预报。 结果 猩红热发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰为每年的春季5-6月,冬季12-1月。预测2012年猩红热可能会发生流行。 结论 流行控制图法适用于发病有明显季节性的疾病。在实际工作中要科学运用,以提高工作效率和质量。

Prediction of scarlet fever incidence with epidemic control chart in Yangquan in 2012

Objective To predict the incidence of scarlet fever with epidemic control chart and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods The epidemic control chart of scarlet fever was made by setting upper limit line of the incidence on the basis of the maximum monthly incidence and the median line on basis of the median of the monthly incidence,then the incidence curve of the disease in the previous 2 months before predicting year was drawn on the chart to predict the incidence trend and intensity.Results The seasonality of scarlet fever incidence was obvious with two peaks during May-June and during December-January.It is predicted that scarlet fever epidemic might occur in 2012.Conclusion Epidemic control chart is suitable to predict the incidence of the disease with obvious seasonality,but it should be used with caution to ensure the prediction effectiveness and quality.