Maternal carrier screening with single-gene NIPS provides accurate fetal risk assessments for recessive conditions

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance of carrier screening for cystic fibrosis, hemoglobinopathies, and spinal muscular atrophy with reflex single-gene noninvasive prenatal screening (sgNIPS), which does not require paternal carrier screening.MethodsAn unselected sample of 9151 pregnant individuals from the general US pregnant population was screened for carrier status, of which 1669 (18.2%) were identified as heterozygous for one or more pathogenic variants and reflexed to sgNIPS. sgNIPS results were compared with newborn outcomes obtained from parent survey responses or provider reports for a cohort of 201 pregnancies.ResultsOverall, 98.7% of pregnant individuals received an informative result (no-call rate = 1.3%), either a negative carrier report or, if identified as heterozygous for a pathogenic variant, a reflex sgNIPS report. In the outcomes cohort, the negative predictive value of sgNIPS was 99.4% (95% CI = 96.0%-99.9%) and average positive predictive value (PPV) of sgNIPS was 48.3% (95% CI = 36.1%-60.1%). Importantly, personalized PPVs accurately reflected the percentage of affected pregnancies in each PPV range, and all pregnancies with a sgNIPS fetal risk of >9 in 10 (90% PPV) were affected.ConclusionAlthough traditional carrier screening is most effective when used to assess reproductive risk before pregnancy, more than 95% of the time it is pursued during a pregnancy and is complicated by incomplete uptake of paternal carrier screening (<50%) and misattributed paternity (～10%). Even in an idealized setting, when both partners have carrier screening, the maximum risk for having an affected pregnancy is 1 in 4 (equivalent of a 25% PPV). Carrier screening with sgNIPS during pregnancy is an alternative that does not require a paternal sample and provides accurate fetal risk in a timely manner that can be used for prenatal counseling and pregnancy management.