南宁市2008~2011年气象因素对手足口病的影响及其交互作用

目的 分析气象因素对南宁市手足口病发生的影响及各气象因素间的交互作用。 方法 收集2008年1月1日至2011年12月31日期间南宁市手足口病周发病资料,采用广义相加模型分析气象因素对手足口病发病的影响,并利用该模型探讨气象因素间的交互作用。 结果 南宁市手足口病发病与平均气温和降雨量均呈非线性关系。随着平均气温的升高发病数不断增加,在24 ℃左右达到最高峰,随后随着温度的升高而逐渐降低;手足口病发病数随降雨量的增多不断增加,到40 mm左右时达到峰值,随后发病数随着降雨量的增多而逐渐减少。平均气温与平均相对湿度、平均风速均有一定的交互作用,高温低湿和适宜温度下的高风速可促进手足口病发生。 结论 平均气温、降雨量等气象因素对手足口病发生均有非线性影响,各气象因素间有一定的交互作用。

Effect of meteorological factors and their interaction on hand-foot-mouth disease in Nanning City,China during 2008 to 2011

Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors and their interaction on hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Nanning City, China. Methods Weekly data of HFMD cases in Nanning City during 2008 to 2011 were collected. Generalized additive model was used to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD, and the interaction among meteorological factors was explored. Results The meteorological factors had nonlinear effect on HFMD. The number of cases of the disease increased continuously with the increase of the average temperature, and reached the peak at around 24 ℃, then decreased gradually as the temperature increased. However, the number of HFMD cases gradually decreased with the increase of rainfall after the peak at 40 mm. The average temperature had a certain interaction with relative humidity and average wind speed. The number of HFMD cases increased under the condition of high temperature and low humidity, and high wind speeds under the suitable temperature. Conclusion The average temperature, rainfall and other meteorological factors have nonlinear effects on the incidence of HFMD, and there is certain interaction among the meteorological factors.