2016年贵州省手足口病及其病毒基因型的时空聚集性分析

目的 分析2016年贵州省手足口病及其病毒基因型的时空聚集性,阐明手足口病的时空流行动态特征。方法 手足口病病例数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统报告的病例,病毒基因型数据来源于同年对报告病例采样的检测结果。利用SaTScan v9.4.4软件完成时空扫描分析,并将结果可视化展示。结果 时空扫描统计分析显示,2016年贵州省手足口病共存在8个聚集区域:第1-16周在贵州省东南部出现聚集热点(P＜0.01);第18-23周转移到中西部,并同时形成3个聚集区域(P＜0.01);第22-29周在西南部聚集(P＜0.01);第35-43周北部转移(P＜0.01);第45-52周在东北部形成聚集热点(P＜0.01)。病毒基因型的时空聚集性显示,EV71和Cox A16伴随在西部流行(P=0.001);第29-52周EV病毒在东部地区长期流行(P=0.001)。结论 贵州省手足口病及其病毒基因型存在时空聚集性。

Hand- foot- mouth disease and the genotypes in Guizhou,2016:a temporal and spatial clustering analysis

Objective To analyze the temporal and spatial aggregation of hand-foot-mouth disease and the virus genotypes,and to clarify the temporal-spatial dynamics of hand-foot-mouth disease epidemics. Methods Cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were extracted from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,and genotypes cases derived from the test results of the samples from the data above.SaTScan v9.4.4 software was used to complete and visualize the temporal-spatial scan clustering analysis. Results 8 hand-foot-mouth disease clusters showed in Guizhou in 2016 according to temporal-spatial scan statistic.The clusters appeared in the southeast in Guizhou the first 16 weeks(P<0.01),which moved to the midwest in the 18th-23th week,and 3 clusters were formed almost simultaneously(P<0.01).The clusters transferred to the southwest from week 22 to week 29(P<0.01),then moved northwards between week 35 and week 43(P<0.01).From week 45 to week 52,clusters were formed at the northeast(P<0.01).Temporal-spatial scan statistical analysis of genotypes indicates that EV71 and Cox A16 clustered together in the west(P<0.001),but EV clustered in the east from week 29 to week 52(P<0.001). Conclusion Temporal and spatial clusters are obvious on hand-foot-mouth disease and the virus genotypes.