2010-2016年重庆市慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率及潜在寿命损失变化趋势分析

目的 了解重庆市慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率及趋势变化,为开展慢性呼吸系统疾病防治工作提供建议。方法 2010-2016年重庆市慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡个案来源于《中国疾病预防控制系统死因登记报告信息系统》。统计分析粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率、潜在寿命损失率、平均潜在寿命损失年、年度变化百分比(Annual percent change,APC)等指标。率的比较采用卡方检验,趋势检验采用线性回归模型中F检验进行判别,检验水准α=0.05。结果 慢性呼吸系统疾病标化死亡率由2010年的78.84/10万下降至2016年的61.84/10万,APC为-3.25%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(F=13.66,P=0.014)。慢性呼吸系统疾病PYLL%由2010年的0.26%下降至2016年0.22%,APC为-2.37%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(F=10.24,P=0.024)。慢性呼吸系统疾病导致的早死概率由2010年的2.56%下降至2016年的2.05%,APC为-2.76%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(F=9.79,P=0.026),慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率男性均高于女性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 重庆市慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡率高于全国的平均水平,标化死亡率与早死概率呈下降的趋势,应进一步加强慢性呼吸系统疾病的防治工作。

Probability of premature death and potential year of life loss caused by chronic respiratory disease in Chongqing,2010-2016

Objective To analyze the probability of premature death,potential year of life loss and its trend change of chronic respiratory disease,to provide a suggestion for chronic respiratory disease prevention and control in Chongqing. Methods Death Cases of chronic respiratory disease from 2010 to 2016 in Chongqing were sorted from Death registration system of China Center for Disease Prevention and Control.The data was used to calculate indicators such as crude mortality,age-specific standardization mortality rate,probability of premature death,rate of potential year of life loss,average years of life lost,annual percent change.The rate between the male and female was compared by Chi-square test.The trend change was identified by F test of linear regression model(α=0.05). Results Age-specific standardization mortality rate of chronic respiratory disease decreased from 78.84/105 in 2010 to 61.84/105 in 2016 significantly(F=13.66,P=0.014)and its APC was -3.25%.The rate of PYLL of chronic respiratory disease decreased from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2016 significantly(F=10.24,P=0.024)and its APC was -2.37%.The probability of premature death due to chronic respiratory disease decreased from 2.56% in 2010 to 2.05% in 2016 significantly(F=9.79,P=0.026).And its APC was -2.76%.The probability of premature death of the male was significantly higher than it of the female from 2010 to 2016(P<0.05). Conclusion The mortality of chronic respiratory disease in Chongqing was higher than national average mortality.The age-specific mortality and probability of premature death due to chronic respiratory disease decreased.Chronic respiratory disease prevention and control should be strengthened.