2013-2015年上海市浦东新区手足口病流行情况及时空扫描分析

目的 了解上海市浦东新区2013-2015年手足口病的流行情况及其时空分布规律。方法 手足口病的发病数据来源于中国疾控传染病报告信息管理系统,街镇人口数来源于上海浦东统计年鉴,街镇的边界地图使用国家测绘局2015年版shp格式的地图数据。采用Excel 2010和SPSS 22整理分析数据,检验水准α取0.05。采用SaTScan 9.3进行时空聚集性扫描,使用ArcGIS 10.5将扫描结果进行可视化。结果 上海市浦东新区2013-2015年手足口病的发病率分别为188.17/10万、297.46/10万、200.95/10万;流行时间具有明显的“双峰性”特征,第一次峰值出现在6月,第二次在出现在9月至10月,第一次的峰值高于第二次;地域分布具有“南低北高”、“东西高中间低”的特点;男性发病人数占总人数的60.06%,年龄在4岁及以下的占85.18%,散居及托幼儿童占93.13%,流动人口占60.37%。单纯时间聚集出现在2014年4月20日至2014年7月17日期间;单纯空间聚集区共有11个,包括南半部2个、北半部9个;时空聚集区域有12个,包括2013年1个、2014年8个、2015年3个,其中北半部9个、南半部3个,发病率越低的地区出现时空聚集时发病的相对危险度就越大。结论 通过研究了解了浦东新区2013-2015年手足口病的流行特征,及其时空聚集区域分布,为今后本地区手足口病的防治提供了一定依据。

Prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease and temporal-spatial scan analysis in Pudong,Shanghai,2013-2015

Objective To understand the prevalence and spatiotemporal distribution of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Pudong New District from 2013 to 2015.Methods HFMD incidence data came from China CDC infectious disease reporting information system,the town population came from the Shanghai Pudong Statistical Yearbook,and the map of the town was the version 2015 shp format map data of State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping.Excel 2010 and SPSS 22 were used to organize the analysis data,test level took 0.05.SaTScan 9.3 was used to scan space-time aggregation,and ArcGIS 10.5 was used to visualize the results.Results The 2013-2015 prevalence of HFMD was 188.17/100 000,297.46/100 000 and 200.95/100 000,respectively in Pudong New Area.The prevalence was markedly bimodal,with the first peak occurring in June,the second appearing in September to October.The first peak was higher than the second.Geographical distribution had a characteristic of "low in the south and east".The incidence of male accounted for 60.06%,and under 4 years old was 85.18%.93.13% of them were diaspora and toddlers,and 60.37% were migrants.Simple time aggregation occurred from April 20,2014 to July 17,2014.There were 11 simple spatial aggregation areas,including 2 in the south half and 9 in the north half.There were 12 space-time aggregation areas including1 in 2013,8 in 2014 and 3 in 2015,of which 9 in the northern half and 3 in the southern half.The lower incidence seemly had a greater relative risk of space-time accumulation.Conclusion By studying we have understood the epidemiological characteristics and the spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD in Pudong New Area from 2013 to 2015.It provides some evidence for the prevention and treatment of HFMD in the future.