Predicting outbreaks: a spatial risk assessment of West Nile virus in British Columbia |
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Authors: | Kaoru Tachiiri Brian Klinkenberg Sunny Mak Jamil Kazmi |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada;(2) Epidemiology Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada;(3) Madrone Environmental Services Ltd., Duncan, BC, Canada |
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Abstract: | Background West Nile virus (WNv) has recently emerged as a health threat to the North American population. After the initial disease
outbreak in New York City in 1999, WNv has spread widely and quickly across North America to every contiguous American state
and Canadian province, with the exceptions of British Columbia (BC), Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. In this study
we develop models of mosquito population dynamics for Culex tarsalis and C. pipiens, and create a spatial risk assessment of WNv prior to its arrival in BC by creating a raster-based mosquito abundance model
using basic geographic and temperature data. Among the parameters included in the model are spatial factors determined from
the locations of BC Centre for Disease Control mosquito traps (e.g., distance of the trap from the closest wetland or lake), while other parameters were obtained from the literature. Factors
not considered in the current assessment but which could influence the results are also discussed. |
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