Metabolic syndrome and vascular risk estimation in a Mediterranean non-diabetic population without cardiovascular disease

AimsVascular risk equations are tools used to help prevent cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare the REGICOR and SCORE equations in a general population and in persons with the metabolic syndrome (MS) according to the criteria of the International Diabetes Federation.Methods and resultsWe calculated the cardiovascular risk with both equations in a random sample of 838 non-diabetic persons aged 40–65 years without a history of cardiovascular disease, of whom 251 had the MS. Of the 838 persons, 3.6% had a high risk according to SCORE and 1.5% according to REGICOR, and of these, 53.3% and 61.5%, respectively, had the MS. The mean risk was greater in the persons with the MS than those without (REGICOR 4.6% vs. 2.6% and SCORE 1.7% vs. 1%; p < 0.01 for each). In comparison with the group without the MS, the percentage of persons with the MS who had a high risk was greater with both scales: REGICOR (3.2% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.027) and SCORE (6.4% vs. 2.4%, p = 0.004). The agreement (kappa index) classifying the subjects with a high risk, was 0.453 in the overall sample and 0.391 in the subgroup with the MS.ConclusionsThe percentage of persons classified as having a high cardiovascular risk differed between REGICOR and SCORE. Using these scales only a small percentage of non-diabetic persons with the MS have a high risk. The presence of the MS multiplies the percentage of non-diabetic persons with a high vascular risk two-fold with SCORE and four-fold with REGICOR.