中国上海人群肺癌发病的时间趋势及预后因素

目的了解上海肺癌发病的时间趋势及影响生存的预后因素。方法由上海全死因登记报告系统所获得的2002至2004年恶性肿瘤患者死亡个案资料,按国际癌症登记协会（IACR）的肿瘤登记计算指南进行计算。分别按粗率和标率计算1972年至2004年的年度变化百分比（APC）,对上海市发病时间趋势进行估计。采用Cox比例风险模型对影响生存的多因素进行分析,参数包括性别、年龄、居住区域、病理类型、临床分期、首诊医院级别。结果自1972年以来的32年,上海市中心区男性肺癌发病粗率APC增加1．723％,而女性增加2．036％,均呈逐渐增高趋势（P均〈0．01）;但男性肺癌的标化发病率APC为-0．605％,呈下降趋势（P〈0．01）,而女性为-0．136％,呈平稳趋势（P〉0．05）。上海市肺癌发病患者中Ⅲ、Ⅳ期占大多数,分别占35．6％和42．2％。上海市女性肺癌的3年生存率为17．05％,中位生存期（MST）为0．83年,均高于男性的14．01％和0．77年（P均〈0．01）,对各期肺癌的不同性别亚组的生存期分析显示女性生存期均较男性为高（P〈0．05）。Cox多因素分析结果提示性别、年龄、居住区域、病理类型、期别、首诊医院级别对肺癌生存有影响（P均〈0．01）;其中女性、年轻、居住市中心区、鳞癌、早期、高级别医院可能对生存有益,而男性、老年、居住郊区、小细胞癌、晚期、低级别医院这些因素可能对肺癌患者不利。结论上海市肺癌的发病水平逐渐接近欧美国家。女性、年轻、市中心区居住、鳞癌、早期、高级别医院治疗对肺癌的生存有益。各期别女性肺癌的预后均优于男性,但原因尚不清楚。

Incidence, time trend, survival, and predictive factors of lung cancer in Shanghai populations

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the incidence, survival, and influential factors of lung cancer in the Shanghai populations. METHODS: Data of individual cases of lung cancer 2000 - 2004 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer registry System. The annual prevent change (APC) of incidence of lung cancer from 1972 to 2004 was calculate by crude and standardized rates so as to analyze the time trends. Cox proportional risk model was used to analyze the factors influencing the survival. RESULTS: 23,196 new cases of lung cancer were diagnosed 2002 - 2004. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer in the females was 33.73/100,000, and the age-adjusted rate was 30.90/100,000. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer and the age-adjusted rate for the males were 81.65/100,000 and 33.73/100,000 respectively, both higher than those of females. The APC values of crude incidence 2004 for both the males and females increased by 1.723% and 2.036% respectively in comparison with the values 1972 (both P < 0.01). The age-adjusted APC of standardized incidence rate for the males in the city center was -0.605% (P < 0.01), showing a tendency to reduce; while the age-adjusted APC of standardized incidence rate for the females in the city center was -0.136 (P > 0.05). The proportion of stage IV cases in the females was 47.5%, significantly higher than that in the males (40.0%, P < 0.05). The proportion of adenocarcinoma in the females was 86.1%, significantly higher than that in the males (47.8%, P < 0.05). The 3-year survival rate and median survival time of adenocarcinoma in the females were 30.38% and 1.48 years respectively, both significantly higher than those in the males (22.66% and 0.98 years, both P < 0.01). Female gender, being younger, living in urban area, squamous cancer, early stage, visit to higher-grade hospital were the factors beneficial to the prognosis of lung cancer. CONCLUSION: The age adjusted incidence rate of lung cancer in Shanghai is much closer to that of Western Europe and North America. The beneficial factors for higher survival rate are female, younger age, urban residency, squamous cell lung cancer, earlier stage of diagnosis, and higher grade hospital for treatment. Women have statistically better outcomes than men in different stages of disease.