广东省四市吸毒人群规模估计研究

目的采用两种基数估计方法对广东省四市的吸毒人群规模进行估计,为广东全省吸毒人群的规模估计提供参考。方法于2005-2007年在广东省选取流动人口相对较少和较多的地级市各2个,对戒毒所内的戒毒者进行问卷调查,采用简易乘数法、捕获-再捕获法对各市的吸毒人群规模进行估计,并与各市公安登记在册的吸毒人数及上一年戒毒所收治的戒毒人数相比较。结果流动人口相对较少的两市,其吸毒人群规模约分别为登记在册数的1.39~3.70倍和1.33~2.05倍,为上一年该市戒毒所戒毒人数的3.37~8.97倍和4.11~6.33倍;流动人口较多的两市,其吸毒人群规模约分别为登记在册数的1.58~2.78倍和1.78~2.52倍,为上一年戒毒所戒毒人数的7.81~13.74倍和9.61~13.61倍。结论广东省各地可根据本地流动人口状况、吸毒的严重性、戒毒力度等综合情况,参考相应的倍数乘以当地吸毒者在册登记数或上一年戒毒所戒毒人数,估计该地的吸毒人群规模。

Population size estimation of drug users in four prefectures in Guangdong province

Objective To estimate the population size of drug users in four prefectures using two methods and provide scientific bases for population size estimation of drug users in the whole province.Methods Two prefectures with large migrant population and two prefectures with few migrants were selected.Multiplier method and capture-recapture method were applied to estimate the population size of drug users.Multipliers were obtained using the interview among the drug users in the detoxification centers.Ratios of estimated size of drug users over registered drug users by local Public Security Bureaus were calculated in each of prefectures.Results In the two prefectures with few migrant population,the ratio of estimated population of drug users to the number of the current registered drug users ranged from 1.39 to 3.70 and 1.33 to 2.05,while to the number of drug users detained in the detoxification centers in the previous year varied from 3.37 to 8.97 and 4.11 to 6.33.In those prefectures with large migrants,the ratios were 1.58 to 2.78,1.78 to 2.52,7.81 to 13.74 and 9.61 to 13.61 respectively.Conclusion The ratios obtained in the study could applied in the estimation of population size of drug users in other areas in Guangdong using the local registered number of drug users with reference to such situations as population size of migrant,severity of drug use and law enforcement to crack down drug use.